A Study on Long-term Travel Behavior Changes in Developing Asian Countries
- Integrated Transport, Arterial Transport, Urban Transport
研究期間：2010 - 2012
背景
In developing Asian countries (DACs), there are two special transport problems that strongly call for innovative policy solutions in the long run.
The first problem is the strong shift to motorcycle mode in urban transport, which is mainly caused by the rapid growth in motorcycle ownership and the deteriorated services of public transport system. The dominance of motorcycles has multiple implications for future developments of urban transport. It popularizes privately motorized modes even at low incomes, reducing public transport ridership and more importantly bringing an irreversible behavioral change for modal preference to private vehicles.
The second one is the dominance of bus mode in intercity transport. In most DACs, since bus services are now cheaper than other modes (private car, rail and air), its share is dominant in all ranges of trip distance, even for trips longer than 1,000km. This phenomenon carries important implications for future developments of intercity transport. In the future, as incomes increase and infrastructure/services of some modes (rail and air) improve further, people's travel behaviors (i.e., car ownership, travel volume and mode choice) may change drastically. Such uncertainties in travel behavior may create the risk of making the wrong investments in transport infrastructures/services in the long term.
Therefore, understanding deeply people's travel behavior changes in the long run is essential for aiding the policy makers in formulating innovative policies to solve the problems. Unfortunately, such researches have been lacking in DACs.
The first problem is the strong shift to motorcycle mode in urban transport, which is mainly caused by the rapid growth in motorcycle ownership and the deteriorated services of public transport system. The dominance of motorcycles has multiple implications for future developments of urban transport. It popularizes privately motorized modes even at low incomes, reducing public transport ridership and more importantly bringing an irreversible behavioral change for modal preference to private vehicles.
The second one is the dominance of bus mode in intercity transport. In most DACs, since bus services are now cheaper than other modes (private car, rail and air), its share is dominant in all ranges of trip distance, even for trips longer than 1,000km. This phenomenon carries important implications for future developments of intercity transport. In the future, as incomes increase and infrastructure/services of some modes (rail and air) improve further, people's travel behaviors (i.e., car ownership, travel volume and mode choice) may change drastically. Such uncertainties in travel behavior may create the risk of making the wrong investments in transport infrastructures/services in the long term.
Therefore, understanding deeply people's travel behavior changes in the long run is essential for aiding the policy makers in formulating innovative policies to solve the problems. Unfortunately, such researches have been lacking in DACs.
研究概要
To pursue the objectives, this research follows a framework as follow:
Case studies: Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia (DACs) for comparison; and Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (developed) for lesson learning.
Scope: The study covers both urban and intercity transport.