Empirical analysis of effects of gasoline price changes on transport behavior

Term of Reasearch : 2008 - 2011

This research analyzes the effect of fluctuation of gasoline prices on transport behavior, to suggest a good example of application of the transport statistics. The method includes the multiple regression or the autoregressive error model, where the elasticities of gasoline price and the income are estimated, using Japan's national and regional time-series data from 1987 to 2008. Higher gasoline prices are shown to be related to lower auto passenger-km per capita, higher transit ridership, lower gasoline consumption on cars, lower auto ownership, and the purchase of more fuel-efficient cars. The effect on railway transport with or without periodic tickets is separately examined. The results not only suggest general policy implications relating to fuel tax, but estimate the adverse effect of the discounting of expressway tolls as well as that of the possible abolition both of the provisional gasoline tax rate and the expressway tolls which the new political leaders in Japan proposed.